How do prediction markets work? They can look complicated: percentages, multipliers, odds that move. Underneath, the idea is simple. People put something on the line behind what they think will happen, and the market pays the people who were right.
This guide explains prediction markets from the ground up, using examples from Oddrix, a Solana prediction market for the Streamer Awards 2026. It’s general education, not financial advice.
The building block: a question with a clear answer
Every market starts with a question that has one official answer at a known time, for example “Who will win Best IRL Streamer at The Streamer Awards 2026?”
Good questions have three things: a clear event, a clear deadline, and a clear source for the result. On Oddrix the source is always the official winner announced by The Streamer Awards, and every market locks before the show.
Odds, probability and payouts
Odds and probability are two ways of saying the same thing. A 2.00x payout means a winning bet returns twice the stake, and it corresponds to a 50% implied chance (1 ÷ 2). A 4.00x payout is 25%, and an 8.00x payout is 12.5%.
A worked example
- You stake 1 SOL on a nominee at 2.00x.
- If they win, you receive 2 SOL: your stake back plus 1 SOL profit.
- If they lose, you lose the 1 SOL.
Fixed odds vs pool (parimutuel) odds
There are three common ways prediction markets set prices:
Order books
Buyers and sellers post prices and trade “Yes” and “No” shares between 0 and 1, like a stock exchange. The price reads as a probability and moves constantly.
Pools
Everyone’s stake goes into one pot and winners split it. Your final payout isn’t known until the market closes, because it depends on how much everyone else staked.
Fixed odds
The payout is set when you bet and doesn’t change. This is how Oddrix works. Every nominee in every category is priced at 50% / 2.00x, there’s no pool and no fee, and the number you see before you sign is the number you get if you win.
Fixed odds are the easiest to understand, which is why we chose them for a streamer prediction market where most people want a quick, clear call rather than a trading screen.
Accumulators: how odds multiply
An accumulator (acca) combines several picks into one bet. All picks must win, and the odds multiply. On Oddrix an accumulator is exactly 3 picks from 3 different categories, so it pays 2 × 2 × 2 = 8x.
- Stake 1 SOL on Streamer of the Year, Gamer of the Year and Best VTuber picks.
- All three win: you receive 8 SOL.
- One category is voided and the other two win: the void counts as 1x, so you receive 4 SOL.
- Any pick loses: the accumulator loses.
The whole accumulator is one Solana transfer with one memo recording all three picks, so it’s as quick to place as a single.
Limits and why they exist
A fixed-odds market has to make sure it can always pay. Oddrix bets are 0.05–50 SOL, the maximum payout on one bet is 400 SOL, and there are caps on the total that could be owed on any one nominee and across all markets. If a pick is fully booked, the app tells you before you sign, so you can lower your stake or choose something else.
Resolution: the moment of truth
When the result is announced, the market resolves. Winning bets are paid and losing bets are settled. Questions worth checking on any platform:
- What exact source decides the result? (Oddrix: the official Streamer Awards winners.)
- What happens if the event is cancelled? (Oddrix: the category is voided, singles are refunded in full and accumulator picks count as 1x.)
- When are payouts made? (Oddrix: in SOL to the wallet that placed the bet, usually within a few days of the show.)
Onchain vs traditional prediction markets
Some prediction markets are regulated exchanges, like Kalshi in the US. Others run on blockchains, like Polymarket. Oddrix runs on Solana: you connect Phantom, sign in for free with a signed message, and every bet is a public transaction. We explain why in Solana prediction markets, explained.
What about losing?
If you’re wrong, you lose your stake. That’s what makes being right worth something. Once the $ODD token launches, losing predictions placed in $ODD are planned to get 5% cashback, paid in $ODD. It isn’t live yet; see What is $ODD?.
Risks to understand first
- You can lose money. Treat it as entertainment spending, not income.
- Odds aren’t forecasts. Oddrix prices every nominee at 2.00x for simplicity; that isn’t a prediction of who will win.
- Rules vary by country. Prediction markets may be restricted where you live, and you must be 18+.
- Crypto has its own risks. Transactions can’t be reversed and scams target new users. Only use official links.
Quick recap
- A market asks a clear question with an official answer and a deadline.
- Odds and probability are the same thing: 2.00x = 50%.
- Fixed odds lock your payout in when you bet; pools and order books move.
- Accumulators multiply odds: three 2x picks = 8x.
- Clear resolution rules are what make a market trustworthy.
Ready to try it? Browse all 37 Streamer Awards prediction markets or read how Oddrix works.